Copper Prices Fluctuate, Secondary Copper Raw Material Prices Remain High [SMM Analysis]

Last week, copper prices first fell, then rose, and fell again, with a decline of 100 yuan/mt. In contrast, secondary copper raw material prices increased due to the persistent lack of improvement in supply. Last week, the price of bare bright copper in Guangdong rose by 200 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, Port Klang West in Malaysia, the second-largest port in Southeast Asia, has experienced a customs clearance halt since September this year. Reviewing China's import data of secondary copper raw materials for September and October, Malaysia exported 17,214 mt and 17,475 mt, respectively, consistently ranking in the top three. Despite the halt, Malaysia's export volume of secondary copper raw materials has not significantly decreased. However, local scrap utilisation enterprises have reported that the complete halt in customs operations has led to slow clearance of a large number of containers, causing a standstill in import and export activities. The specific duration of this customs halt has not been publicly disclosed. SMM will provide timely updates if there is any new information. Due to this impact, the export volume of secondary copper raw materials from Malaysia to China in November and December is expected to decrease by 20%-40%.

Last week, the CIF price for #1 copper scrap was quoted at the COMEX 3M copper contract price minus 17-19¢/lb, and the CIF price for #2 copper scrap was quoted at the COMEX 3M copper contract price minus 24-25¢/lb. The CIF price for US brass scrap was at 66.5-67% against LME, with a fixed price of $6,100-6,150/mt (limited transactions). The CIF price for Cu98.5% wire nodules was at 95.5-95.75% against LME, and the CIF price for bare bright copper was at 97.5-98% against LME.

Looking ahead to this week, copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and secondary copper raw material prices and supply are expected to remain unchanged.